We are pleased to announce that we are now able to share the reports on the projections of the National Covid-19 Epi Model to which a number of HE2ROs have contributed. The long-term national and provincial reports are available here. 

Over the last eight weeks, Gesine Meyer-Rath, Lise Jamieson, Brooke Nichols, Jacqui Miot and Kerensa Govender have been working with the National Department of Health (NDoH) and National Treasury to aid decision making around the Covid-19 response as part of the Minister of Health’s Advisory Committee (MAC) and the NDoH Modelling Consortium. Working from home and through the night, epidemiological modellers Brooke Nichols and Lise Jamieson built a mathematical model of Covid-19 in South Africa in early March. This model has now been integrated into the National Covid-19 Epi Model that is being used to project the number of cases, hospitalisations and other resource use requirements over the next months. Gesine Meyer-Rath led the development of the national Covid-19 budget model, with Kerensa Govender, and Jacqui Miot chairs the Covid-19 Costing Working Group that has been tasked by the NDoH to cost the country’s Covid-19 response. This work is assisting the NDoH and provincial DoHs with their budgets plans submitted to National Treasury and supports decision making with regards to a number of tests and clinical algorithms.

Media coverage:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52745235

https://www.enca.com/news/sa-scientists-say-50000-covid-19-deaths-possible

https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/breaking-projections-for-covid-19-show-12-to-13-million-cases-by-november-peak-of-1-million-in-august-20200521

https://omny.fm/shows/mid-morning-show-702/how-was-the-model-built-and-what-assumptions-were

https://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/south-africa/2020-05-21-40000-could-be-dead-in-sa-by-end-of-the-year-due-to-covid-19-modelling-consortium/

https://m.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/grim-covid-19-projections-for-sa-40-000-deaths-1-million-infections-and-a-dire-shortage-of-icu-beds-20200519

https://iono.fm/e/863250 Corona virus could claim as many as 40 000 lives when it reaches its peak in SA

https://www.mosselbayadvertiser.com/News/Article/National/government-models-predict-over-40-000-coronavirus-deaths-for-sa-this-year-202005201059

https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2020-05-20-40000-could-die-in-sa-when-covid-19-storm-peaks-experts/

https://citizen.co.za/news/covid-19/2287957/government-models-predict-over-40000-coronavirus-deaths-for-sa-this-year/