HIV has increased mortality and slowed population growth. As a consequence, GDP is lower and will remain lower than it would have been without the impact of HIV.
Economic modelling suggests that the short- to medium-term impacts of HIV on GDP per capita are unclear, with important effects working in opposite directions. In the longer run, the effects are likely dominated by adverse impacts on education and skills.
The empirical evidence on the link between HIV and growth of GDP per capita is also unclear. Studies linking growth of GDP per capita and direct measures of the impact of HIV tend to find very small effects.
The evidence is strongest with regard to the impact of HIV on the accumulation of human capital, which however affects economic growth only very gradually.