AIDS-related mortality among working-age adults reduces GDP growth but has an ambiguous effect on
GDP per capita.
In the short run, population size decreases due to reduced fertility and increased child mortality owing to HIV, and GDP per capita increases, but this results in lower growth of the working-age population and of
GDP in the long run.
A smaller elderly cohort due to HIV-related early mortality mitigates the fiscal burden of an ageing population, but as HIV treatment is scaled up, there is higher-than-normal growth of the old population.
The HIV response reverses most of the demographic impacts and results in higher growth of the working age population, but reversals in the impact on the population structure play out over decades.